Member Login
The previous building and construction forecasts for Victoria, published in February 2020, provided a mixed interpretation of the medium-term outlook for building and construction activity. Residential building activity was forecast to fall and bottom-out in 2020/21 before a period of recovery. Forecasts for commercial building and engineering construction activity provided a more sobering picture, however, as it was expected commercial building activity wouldn’t recover until 2022/23.
However, due to the COVID-19 crisis and the significant changes it has brought to the economic environment, revisions have now been made to the February 2020 forecasts for Victoria to better reflect this. Members would have already received forecasts for Australia. The revisions depict the expected downgrade to the original forecasts as a result of COVID-19. However, given the volatility of the current economic environment, the ultimate performance of the building and construction industry may not necessarily be reflected in the revised forecasts.
The following tables and graphs summarise the significant downgrade to the February 2020 forecasts for new home and commercial building activity in light of COVID-19:
Comparison of Master Builders Forecasts for New Home Building commencements for Victoria: | ||||
| Pre COVID-19 | Updated Master Builders Forecasts | Forecast | Forecast |
2019/20 | 52,767 | 49,425 | -3,342 | -6.3% |
2020/21 | 51,413 | 39,944 | -11,469 | -22.3% |
2021/22 | 53,373 | 44,417 | -8,956 | -16.8% |
2022/23 | 56,812 | 45,305 | -11,507 | -20.3% |
2023/24 | 59,858 | 49,520 | -10,338 | -17.3% |
2024/25 | 63,008 | 56,319 | -6,689 | -10.6% |
Comparison of Master Builders Forecasts for Commercial Building for Victoria: | ||||
| Pre COVID-19 | Updated Master Builders Forecasts | Forecast | Forecast |
2019/20 | $ 13,559 | $ 12,781 | -$ 778 | -5.7% |
2020/21 | $ 12,311 | $ 10,311 | -$ 2,000 | -16.2% |
2021/22 | $ 11,328 | $ 10,274 | -$ 1,054 | -9.3% |
2022/23 | $ 10,822 | $ 10,663 | -$ 159 | -1.5% |
2023/24 | $ 11,149 | $ 11,028 | -$ 121 | -1.1% |
2024/25 | $ 11,876 | $ 11,516 | -$ 360 | -3.0% |
